5 GOP House Seats Dems Could Win

Real Clear Politics, April 23, 2010
Republican leaders say their goal in the upcoming midterm elections is to pick up 40 House seats and take back the majority, and most political handicappers say that's a real possibility. By just about any measure of national polling, Democrats face an abysmal national mood and a toxic political environment that's likely to last through Election Day.

But while Democrats prepare for big losses in the midterm elections, there are a handful of GOP seats around the country that the party has a legitimate chance of winning. Doing so would force Republicans to work a little harder to achieve their goal of winning control of the House.

Louisiana - 2: "Under ordinary circumstances, Cao, as a Republican, would have had no chance in this district." That's how the Almanac of American Politics described his 2008 upset of Rep. Bill Jefferson, and that's how it will likely play out this year with convicted felon Bill Jefferson no longer on the ticket and serving 13 years in prison. This New Orleans-based district voted at least 75% for the last four Democratic presidential nominees. Cao's fundraising took a major hit in the first quarter of 2010, bringing in just $100,000, leaving him with $310,000 on hand. His likely opponent, State Rep. Cedric Richmond, raised $128,000 and has $278,000 in the bank.